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» Oil rigs are seen in Midland, Texas May 9, 2008. Oil jumped to a record above $126 a barrel on Friday, extending gains to more than 11 percent since the start of the month on fuel supply concerns and a rush of speculator buying.2008年5月份德克薩斯州的石油鉆井平臺。在周五的時候，原油價格飆升到了每桶126美元以上，這是自從本月初人們開始擔心能源供給和一系列的投機購買行為后，才導致了原油價格上升，上升幅度超過了11個百分點。(Reuters) - The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's top oil producer by 2017, the West's energy agency said on Monday, predicting Washington will come very close to achieving a previously unthinkable energy self-sufficiency.(路透社)——西方的能源機構(國際能源署)在周一的時候說，到2017年時，美國將會取代沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯成為世界頭號原油生產(chǎn)國，該機構還預測美國在能源上將能夠自給自足，而這在過去是不可想象的。The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it saw a continued fall in U.S. oil imports with North America becoming a net oil exporter by around 2030 and the United States becoming almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035.國際能源署說，美國現(xiàn)在的原油進口量在不斷的降低，到2030年左右，北美將會成為原油凈出口地區(qū)，而到2035年時，美國在能源上將幾乎能達到自給自足。"The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said.國際能源署說：“美國現(xiàn)在的能源進口量大約占其總需求量的20%，如果按凈值來計算的話，幾乎達到了自給自足的狀態(tài)——而大多數(shù)國家似乎越來越依賴于能源進口，所以美國的能源進出口趨勢和其他大多數(shù)國家是相反的。The forecasts by the IEA, which advises large industrialized nations on energy policy, were in sharp contrast to its previous reports, which saw Saudi Arabia remaining the top producer until 2035.國際能源署這次做的有關發(fā)達國家能源政策上的預測和該機構之前的做的預測產(chǎn)生了強烈的對比，因為該機構之前說沙特阿拉伯直到2035年還會是世界頭號石油生產(chǎn)國。"Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America - and the energy sector," the IEA said in the annual long-term report, giving one of the most optimistic forecasts for U.S. energy production growth to date.“美國能源發(fā)展的成就是巨大的，對北美以及北美以外的地方都會產(chǎn)生影響——而且還會對除能源部門外的其他部門產(chǎn)生影響�！眹�際能源署在其每年發(fā)布的遠期報告中這樣說道，在這份報告中，國際能源署對美國的能源生產(chǎn)增長率給予了極其樂觀的預測，而這在之前是從沒發(fā)生過的。"The recent rebound in U.S. oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity - with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge," it added.報告中還說道：“最近美國石油和天然氣的產(chǎn)量都得到了大幅的提高，主要原因是應用了最新的開采技術，所以那些處于地底深層的原油以及在頁巖以下的天然氣都得到了很好的開采，所以美國的經(jīng)濟得到了大量的能源供給——天然氣和電價的價格變得更便宜了，這使得美國的企業(yè)的成本更低，從而更具競爭力。IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told a news conference in London he believed the United States would overtake Russia as the biggest gas producer by a significant margin by 2015. By 2017, it would become the world's largest oil producer, he said.國際能源署的首席經(jīng)濟學家畢洛在倫敦的一個新聞發(fā)布會上說，他相信到2015年時，美國能夠以絕對的優(yōu)勢取代俄羅斯成為世界上最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國。他又說，到2017年時，美國將會成為最大的原油生產(chǎn)國。This could have significant geopolitical implications, if Washington feels its strategic interests are no longer as embedded in the Middle East and other volatile oil producing regions.而這也會對地緣政治產(chǎn)生一些影響，比如美國可能會覺得其戰(zhàn)略利益不再存在于中東地區(qū)或者是其它動蕩的石油生產(chǎn)區(qū)域了。Analysts ask whether an energy independent United States would still be prepared to safeguard major trade routes around the world, such as the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.有分析學者可能會問：一個能源上獨立的美國是否還會去保衛(wèi)世界上主要的貿(mào)易路線，比如中東的霍爾木茲海峽。The United States will rely more on natural gas than either oil or coal by 2035 as cheap domestic supply boosts demand among industry and power generators, the IEA said.到2035年時，美國將會更多的依賴天然氣，對石油或者是煤炭的依賴沒有天然氣那么高，原因是美國國內(nèi)就可以大量的供應便宜的天然氣資源，這刺激了工業(yè)部門和發(fā)電廠對天然氣的需求，國際能源署如此說道。LIMITED KNOWLEDGE有限的認識Birol said he realized how optimistic the IEA forecasts were given that the shale oil boom was a relatively new phenomenon.畢洛說，目前頁巖油相對來說還是新事物，之前并沒有大量的開采過，所以國際能源署才會對美國的能源未來那么的積極樂觀。"Light, tight oil resources are poorly known ... If no new resources are discovered (after 2020) and plus, if the prices are not as high as today, then we may see Saudi Arabia coming back and being the first producer again," he said.“那些埋在地底深層的石油資源目前還不被人所熟知。。。如果在2020年以后還沒有新的深層石油資源被發(fā)現(xiàn)，加上如果那時的原油價格沒有今天這么高的話，那么沙特阿拉伯可能卷土重來并且再次奪得頭號原油生產(chǎn)國的寶座�！彼�如此說道。The IEA said it saw U.S. oil production rising to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015 and 11.1 million bpd in 2020 before slipping to 9.2 million bpd by 2035.國際能源署說，美國的原油產(chǎn)量到2015年時會達到每天1000萬桶，而到2020年時每天可以達到1110萬桶，而到2035年時會下降到920萬桶。Saudi Arabian oil output would be 10.9 million bpd by 2015, the IEA said, 10.6 million bpd in 2020 but would rise to 12.3 million bpd by 2035.而沙特阿拉伯的石油產(chǎn)量在這三個時期則分別是1090萬桶，1060萬桶以及1230萬桶。That would see the world relying increasingly on OPEC after 2020 as, in addition to increases from Saudi Arabia, Iraq will account for 45 percent of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and become the second-largest exporter, overtaking Russia.所以最終的結果是，在2020年以后，整個世界還會繼續(xù)依賴歐佩克的石油，原因是不僅沙特阿拉伯會有更多的石油產(chǎn)出，更重要的原因是，到2035年時，伊拉克將會占據(jù)全球石油生產(chǎn)增長份額的45%并且代替俄羅斯成為第二大石油出口國。OPEC's share of world oil production will rise to 48 percent from 42 percent now.到那時，歐佩克在全球石油產(chǎn)量上的份額將會從現(xiàn)在的42%增長到48%。Russian oil output, which over the past decade has been steadily above Saudi Arabia, is predicted to stay flat at over 10 million bpd until 2020, when it will start to decline to reach just above 9 million bpd by 2035.俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量在過去的十年來正在穩(wěn)步的超越沙特阿拉伯，但是，到2020年時，其石油產(chǎn)量將只能達到每天1000萬桶的規(guī)模，然后就會開始走下坡路，到2035年時，將只能達到每天900多萬桶的規(guī)模。"Russia, which remains the largest individual energy exporter throughout the period, sees its revenues from oil, natural gas and coal exports rise from $380 billion in 2011 to $410 billion in 2035," the IEA said.國際能源署說：“在這個期間，俄羅斯將還會是世界上最大的個體能源出口國，其從石油、天然氣和煤炭中獲得的收入將從2011年的3800億美元上升到2035年的4100億美元。”The U.S. oil boom would accelerate a switch in the direction of international oil trade, the IEA said, predicting that by 2035 almost 90 percent of oil from the Middle East would be drawn to Asia.美國在石油上的產(chǎn)量大增，這將會加快國際石油貿(mào)易方向上的轉(zhuǎn)變，國際能源署如此說道，該機構預測，到2035年時，中東國家90%的石油將會被出口到亞洲。ENERGY DEMAND GROWS BY THIRD能源需求增長三分之一The report assumes a huge expansion in the Chinese economy, which it saw overtaking the United States in purchasing power parity soon after 2015 and by 2020 using market exchange rates. Chinese real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 5.7 percent annually between 2011 and 2035.國際能源署的這份報告假設了中國經(jīng)濟將會繼續(xù)得到巨大的發(fā)展，認為通過利用市場匯率的手段，在購買力均價上中國將會在2015年到2020年期間超過美國。而中國的實際國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值在2011年至2034年之間每年將會以5.7%的速度增長。A rise of 1.8 billion in the world's population to 8.6 billion would lead to a spike in global oil demand by more than a 10th to over 99 million bpd by 2035, keeping pressure on oil prices, the IEA said.國際能源署說, 到2035年時，世界人口將新增加18億達到創(chuàng)紀錄的86億，這將會使對石油的需求達到頂峰，所以到2035時，全球每天要生產(chǎn)9900萬桶的原油才能滿足需求，這會給石油價格帶來巨大的壓力。The agency's central "New Policies" scenario, which assumes a range of measures are taken to curb oil consumption in Europe, the United States, China and elsewhere, sees the average import cost of oil rise to just over $215 per barrel by 2035 in nominal terms, or $125 in 2011 terms.國際能源署的“新政策”方案假設世界通過一系列的措施來遏制歐洲，美國，中國以及世界其他地方的石油消費，但是即使是在這種情況下，到2035年時，平均的石油進口價格將會達到每桶215美元或更多，這是以名義(票面)價值來計算的，如果以2011年的基礎來計算的話，將會達到125美元每桶。If fewer steps are taken to promote renewable energy and curb carbon dioxide emissions, oil was likely to exceed $250 per barrel in nominal terms by 2035 and reach $145 in real terms -- almost level with the record highs seen four years ago.如果不采取措施來發(fā)展可再生能源和抑制二氧化碳的排放的話，到2035年時，石油價格(按名義價值算)將會超過250美元每桶，或者達到145美元每桶(扣除物價因素)——而這和四年前出現(xiàn)的高油價一樣的高。The share of coal in primary energy demand will fall only slightly by 2035.到2035年的時候，人們對煤炭的需求只會下降一點點。Fossil fuels in general will remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, jumped by almost 30 percent to $523 billion, due mainly to increases in the Middle East and North Africa.一般來說，化石燃料將會在全球能源組合中占據(jù)主導地位，但是由于得到了政府的補貼，在2011年的時候，化石燃料的產(chǎn)值下降了30%達到5230億美元，而這個產(chǎn)值中的大部分主要受益于中東和北非的產(chǎn)量提高。因該已經(jīng)開發(fā)出來新能源了，不然以美國的觀念不大可能挖自己的東西 因該已經(jīng)開發(fā)出來新能源了，不然以美國的觀念不大可能挖自己的東西我昨天轉(zhuǎn)過了。。。不過沒英文。。。。新能源技術有把握20年內(nèi)取得突破性進展了，不再憋著能源造成緊張局勢，加快消耗能力加重其他國家跟進消耗能力進一步用新能源技術壟斷世界減少對歐佩克依賴和綠教陣營扯皮，繼續(xù)拖著全球能源問題嚴重化和減少軍事戰(zhàn)爭保存實力憋新科技完了又一次領先全球20年。美軍不僅是在石油輸出國存在，全世界都要遍布，日韓不就是